Wednesday

[reggie1]

Sides, 116-111 +14.38
Totals, 14-16, -2.75
Year, 130-127, +11.63

About 4 or 5 (last year – 7) times a year, there’s a few certain games that I tone in on, invest a little bit more change at, and hope for the best. These games are circled before the year and for me it’s just a matter of getting the right line that I want. Past success in no way measures the current risk. Fear the bloodbath.

This isn’t necessarily a situational spot, but I will risk a hefty amount of units on this match up this year. This is a really tough call on the side for this game, w/ it being played in Peoria. For those that aren’t familiar with either squad, this is probably one of the top rivalries in all of Illinois. Having gone to Illinois games over the course of recent years against many Big-10 rivals, doesn’t even measure up to a Illinois State/Bradley game. The years that Illinois State won 7 or 8 games, one game was sold out, and this was it. Bradley hasn’t been all that great this year w/ the loss of Ruffin, but sold out nearly every game with him in the lineup, and this game’s sold out as well. It’s a big rivalry. ISU is out for 5x revenge, I do not think they should be favored here as the crowd at Bradley will simply be a 6th man on the court. Case in point, I will tell you right now that when Bradley comes into Bloomington on February 9th, I will have a hefty amount on ISU, especially if Ruffin hasn’t re-joined the team by then. –8, -10, whatever. I’m on it.

As for the game tonight, I can talk a few situational spots. Not really a good spot for ISU normally. You’re undefeated in conference play, having one hell of a season, and you go to Drake, dominate the game for 32 minutes, and give it away at the end by simply not hitting open shots, and not hitting free throws. Two things can be taken from that game. Either one, you come into Bradley flat as crap, realizing that you just had the opportunity lost of taking over the top spot in the valley, or two, you bounce right back. I’ll hand it to Illinois State. Through post-game interviews, and throughout the week, they seem to have adjusted rather well. Numerous quotes from players stating that it was just one game, and the bigger task at hand is against Bradley to end the current five game skid against the Braves. In retrospect, I was hoping for a Creighton win last night, so that ISU would be playing for the top spot in the Valley tonight, to keep it’s momentum, to know that you’ll get the team’s best effort. I still think you get it anyways. Illinois State has 5x revenge. In past year’s, they were simply not the better team. This year, w/ the loss of Ruffin, this definitely makes ISU the better team. Bradley doesn’t really have much to play for the rest of the season. Having lost a handful of Valley games at the onset of the year, along with the coupled fact that they really don’t own a key out of conference win, they’re pretty much looking at regular season and done. A rematch against Wichita comes Saturday at Wichita, so there really isn’t anything Bradley is looking ahead to here. They travel to ISU and a rematch w/ Drake, but unless Ruffin’s back for those games, it’s not really meaning much for Bradley at this point. Bradley’s best scorer is about 20some points away from reaching the 1000 point mark (Crouch) and a handful of three-pointers away from the all-time school mark. What better to get to 1000 against your biggest rival (I’ll get to this a little later).

As for Jankovich and Les, I will admit going into this year that I had thought Les was one of the top schemers in the Valley. Bradley games were so hard to cap at one point because you did not know what he was going to bring at you. There were moments where he would rely on changing defenses on a dime, confusing opposing offenses. You really don’t get that much from him anymore. He’s changed into a coach who preaches loose balls and hustle, not necessarily half court defense, and then on offense, they’re looking for a 3ball. More-so with Ruffin in the lineup, but you get the drift. When Illinois State brought in Jankovich, I was excited, as he said he was going to get up and down. Which is what he did at the beginning of the year. It was the game in Chicago against Indiana where I think he realized that with this team, you really had more of a defensive prowess, rather than an onslaught of offense. Their pace quickly changed, and over the course of the season, they have developed into a very talented defensive team. Their bigs are in the game because of defense, not offense. Their guards are quick, and defend extremely well.

At the PG spot, I’ll quickly mention the loss of Ruffin one more time, last time I promise, and say that’s pretty much taking Michael Jordan from the Bulls. You still have Scottie Pippen (Crouch in this instance) and the role players, but you lose you’re best defender and the focal point of your offense. In steps Sammy Maniscalo, a SG converted to PG because of the loss of Ruffin. He has played well offensively, defensively not well at all. It should not show though tonight, as he’ll be going up against tiny Boo Richardson. While Richardson is also known for his defense, their isn’t typically anything he does on the offensive side of things that is alarming. These two point guards are similar. You have Richardson who has been at ISU a while controlling the tempo, and making sure the offense is run through. You have a freshman in Maniscalo who was thrown into the starting role, slowing things down b/c of his inexperience and wanting others to get involved.

The greatest output of scoring within the match-ups is almost certainly going to come from the wing slot. Illinois State brings in one of the best and most improved two-guards in the Valley in Eldridge and Johnson. Johnson is more known for his slashing ability, while with Eldridge, his athletic ability is almost always unmatched by his opponent. Both are great defenders, and both can shoot the three-ball extremely well. As for Bradley, Crouch, who I’ve already mentioned chasing school records, and tall and lengthy Theron Wilson, who is coming off a career game last time out. Both shoot the three-ball extremely well, while neither one are known as being great defenders. Key here is while Crouch has had a stellar years in Peoria, Bradley has still been able to put ISU away without Crouch’s scoring. I think Crouch had 7 points in one of last year’s meetings, and that was the highest he’s scored in his career versus ISU. With last year’s games, the sole purpose that ISU had going into both games was apparent, stopping Crouch from the Arc. It’s been the key since day 1 for ISU. In last year’s match-ups, they used Eldridge on him both games, which also limited Eldridge’s looks on the offensive side of things as he only scored a combined total of 10 points in both games. His athleticism is enough to limit the slower, smaller Crouch.

In the post, there is a couple of bodies who are just in there to bang, play physical, and rebound. One name worth mentioning is Anthony Slack of ISU. The kid is pretty athletic, probably one of the better low-post defender’s in the conference. When you talk about low post play with these two teams, you really don’t have the guy who can back you down, perform a post move, and score. It will happen on occasion, but it’s not what either of these teams wants to do. Both teams want to penetrate and kick, or penetrate and find the open man for a dunk. Warren for Bradley plays a little bit in the post when asked upon, but more than likely, it’s 4 guards in the offense at one time for Bradley.

Looking at match-ups as a whole, while including the bench, it’s pretty clear and has been all year that a Jim Les coached team is going to see quite a bit of minutes from the guard position, whether it be rotating in some in-experienced guards or playing four guards at one time to neutralize the opponent’s height advantage in the post. I think Bradley does the same tonight, but it really doesn’t help them. ISU brings in Dyer off the bench who has been stroking it lately. He’s a 6-10” Center who is absolutely, positively, no threat in the post, but these guards penetrate and find him in the corner for a 3. If this game goes over tonight, he has an above average game on the road. I’ll take my chances.

If I’m betting on the –3 and Illinois State tonight, I’m worried about a few things. I’m worried about this being Bradley’s last “get-up” game, meaning, they have nothing to play for, except sold out Carver Arena and all their fans for the last meaningful time this year. I’m worried about shooting poorly in a hostile environment. I’m worried about Les’ ability to change game plans and being absolutely shell-shocked with a change in what they prepared for all week. But most importantly, I’m worried about a letdown after the letdown at Drake the other night. All the momentum built up towards Drake came spiraling downward in the last few minutes of that game.

If I’m on Bradley and the points at home, I’m worried about not being the better team. I’m worried about Crouch being the only consistent scorer, yet not scoring more than seven points in this entire series. I’m worried about two games that were fought down to the final minutes the last two times out. I’m worried about ISU’s defensive pressure on my young point guard, and I’m worried about the tempo at which this game will be played.

I’m on the under, and willing to risk a bit more than normal. Illinois State has been able to control the pace of a game all year. Bradley’s played three top #50 teams in pace rankings and scored 68, 61, and 64. This is a rivalry game. Don’t mean much when you look at the totals of previous years, but there was one team that was always consistently better. I’m not sure that’s the case this year. Illinois State has the better team. Bradley has the home court. Illinois State will control the pace going into a hostile environment, and Bradley will thrive defensively off the adrenaline that comes from it’s fans. It’s a rivalry game. Both teams are probably outta the gates pretty fast here tonight, but I think she’s gonna slow down a bit. Crouch’s inefficiency against ISU, a rivalry game, a close point spread, and a strong hope for no OT puts me on the under.

10* Illinois State/Bradley under 139

There will be more…

GL

[The Great One]

Thanks for getting this up early

[reggie1]

The rest…

3* Kent State ML -150
2* South Carolina +2
2* Penn State +2
2* ML Parlay: -109 (Texas A&M, North Carolina, Villanova)

GL

[MikeOswald]

GL on your card Reg!

[reggie1]

would have been nice to know RUFFIN was back

[THEENGLISHMAN]

shit sorry wrong day....sorry for the loss my friend