Tuesday Hoopla - Offshore Sport Betting

reggie1 · #1 (**permalink**) November 27th, 2007, 14:12

Sides, 28-17, +16.75
Totals, 7-5, +1.85
Year, 35-22, +18.60

Ball State/St. Joseph’s

How much does Ball State have left here? They’ve faced a pretty tough schedule. A home loss to Butler, a home loss to Wisconsin MKE (where they led by 17 in the 2H), only a 9 point loss to Georgetown, and a 1 point loss to Evansville where they had a lead of 9 points with seven to play. AND, with the exception of the Wisky MKE game, they’ve scored more points than the opposition (or close to) in the 2H of ballgames. Which pretty much tells me this is a team of runs, and St. Joseph’s is a team of runs as well, but they don’t give up many big runs. Newell is still out here (another 6 weeks or so), and St. Joseph’s has an extreme advantage on the inside here. This road trip for Ball State doesn’t get any easier; they’ll travel 3900+ miles over the next 5 games (all on road). If St. Joseph’s doesn’t have Zaga on deck coming to town on Thursday, combined with the fact that they’ve been off for 10 days, I probably lay the chalk here in a big fashion.

Arkansas LR/Rice

Should not affect the outcome of the game, and just another body, but Little Rock’s LaMarvon Jackson will not make the trip with the team to Rice (1.8 ppg, 3rpg, 13 minutes).

UAB/UL Lafayette

UAB hasn’t seen pressure like it will see tonight. Lafayette will press for pretty much the entire game and UAB will be starting a freshman PG in only his second true road game. UAB lost Delaney in the Georgia Southern game w/ a ACL tear (he was all-conference last year and pre-season all-conference PG this year). Johnson’s first start AT Rhode Island was a 1-4 from the floor, and four turnover night in a five point loss. He’s performed well at home the last two games, however. Unsure of the status of Terrance Roderick (UAB - still ineligible – he’s a 6’6” freshman guard that can do everything and compliments the style of Davis’ offense extremely well). Lafayette returns leading scorer Dees, and Milsap (who I think was Sun Belt Freshman of the year last year), but that’s about it. They’re a pretty young squad and the roster contains 14 guards. UAB has Cincy coming to town Saturday, and Lafayette goes to Tennessee on Friday.

Troy/Ole Miss

Well, Troy just gave up 97 points in a loss to Georgia State, who at the time, was averaging 53 ppg. Why did Troy play such a fast paced game against Georgia State? The coach said it himself, they were preparing for Ole Miss’ fast style of play. He wanted to see what his team could do. They trap relentlessly, and are a young hurting squad going into the matchup with Ole Miss. The Center Jervis has a calf injury and has been unable to practice/play. PG Vogler missed Utah Valley State w/ a leg injury, but returned against Georgia State. Forward Telfair is out with a broken nose. And their best player, Acker, has yet to be cleared by the NCAA to play (meeting on Wednesday). In the game against Georgia State, Troy put 5 guards on the court listed at 6’2” or less a majority of the game. Having scored 97, 81, 108, and 94, I think Ole Miss can name their number here, as long as they aren’t looking ahead to revenge a WHOPPING 95-42 loss at New Mexico last year, who comes into town on Saturday. Didn’t Barnes use to coach at Ole Miss? I think 167 is a high total, but why can’t Ole Miss put up 100 here, especially when Troy is going to try and push the tempo as well after having success with it last game? Troy was able to put up 72 on Bama despite shooting 35% from the floor, and 25% from 3land. They did have Vogler, Telfair, and Jervis that game though and I hate playing an over where a team just scored 20 more points than it’s average (Troy), but I never thought I’d say an over 167 looked good. Lean: Over

UNI/ISU
Iowa State is something like 24-2 at home in this in-state rivalry, and they get their leader, and best player back tonight after missing the first four games (Wesley Johnson). Northern Iowa’s not the same team on the road, and this will be their 3rd straight roady (not far though), and they’re coming off a loss to the JackRabbits of South Dakota State, where they clearly looked lethargic committing 25 fouls, and losing by 6, despite having 2 more field goals, and 7 more rebounds than the opposition. I’m on the home squad getting the emotional boost from Johnson back in the line-up.

Colorado/Denver
Interesting coaching matchup here. Both coaches took Air Force to impressive seasons and NCAA tournaments within the last 5 years. Always have to try and find a reason to go against Colorado laying the points. Tough to do that with Denver though, they have very little offense (only 8 FG’s last time out, yes, 8…..for the game). Possible underooski here…, but not at 124.

Wisconsin/Duke

Gut tells me Wisconsin’s first trip to Cameron will be an ugly one. The win over Georgia was a big win for Wisconsin, but it was at home, where they very rarely lose. And Georgia dismissed it’s top two scorers before the seasons started if I remember correctly. Have wins over IUPU Fort Wayne, Savannah State, Florida A&M, Colorado, and Georgia at home really tested you for visiting Cameron? I mentioned Duke’s non-conference record at home a few days ago, and also mentioned the keys to beating Duke a week or so ago, and that was defending Paulus and Scheyer. Wisconsin has zero depth at the PG, so if Hughes (sort of reminds me from James at Marquette) is unable to produce, it’s a long night for Wisky. I’m interested to see how Wisky defends here. Duke has built a version of the Phoenix Suns offense into their system, which traditionally, contrasts Wisconsin’s style of play. Wisconsin has a advantage on the inside, but from watching Coach K over the years, he’s going to run here and force the tempo to make the bigs get up and down the court. Make Wisconsin get back, and take away opportunities for offensive rebounds (which Wisky is so good at doing). If I think Duke wins this game (which I do), Wisconsin more than likely will have less than 70 points, which is possible for a first trip to Cameron. Wisky’s 95-5 under Ryan when they score more than 70 points. I don’t normally see value in a –8 or a –9, but with the schedule that these two teams have played, and the emergence of a somewhat decent backcourt (who I projected at best a C- coming into the year) against limited competition for Wisconsin, Duke comes at a cheap price in my opinion at anything under a –12. Would imagine this game gets the most attention/money out of anything tonight, so I’m probably sitting it out.

NMST/UTEP

NMST just hasn’t shown the same passion as they did under Theus yet this year. Hawkins should be back for this game, and NMST has a huge advantage on the inside, but UTEP wants to run here as well. This is a pretty big rivalry. Pretty sure I read an article somewhere that kids have been tailgating this morning for this game at UTEP. NMST has played a tough schedule thus far, but again, they’re a different team away from home. As I stated, they have a huge rebounding advantage here, and they’re going to have to hit some outside shots in order to win the game, something they did not do at Ohio, or vs. Texas and WVU on the neutral floor. I’m on the few possessions + in a rivalry game.

Western Carolina/Elon

My #4 in the north half of the SoCon vs. my #5 in the north half of the SoCon. And the #4 is catching points, which I will not pass up all year in this situation unless something occurs such as an injury/motivation/etc… Elon is still young, and lost it’s leader and top scorer in Jordan to graduation. Watson returns as a Senior after sitting out a majority of last year with an ankle or leg injury, and he’ll be their primary threat on the offensive side of things. They really don’t have an offensive style but they reflect their game plan a lot depending on what the other squad will bring or allow them to do. Hunter (WCU Coach), has brought his system of defense and recruiting to WCU from Ohio and has seen improvements in his first three years. Elon really has nobody to stop Aldridge (beastie) on the inside, and with the way Elon’s guards have been shooting the last few games (Watson included), I’d have to give Carolina a slight edge in a more experienced backcourt. This is pretty early in the year for a conference game, so I’m going to go with the points and the road pup w/ the more experience and the better overall system, which prepares these kids for early conference play.

Eastern Illinois/Wisky GB

I thought good things were in store for this Eastern team having garnered quite a bit of experience over the course of the past two years. But, they have slipped yet again. EIU comes in here after dropping a game to Arkansas State, which is a primarily guard oriented team, and now have to face the height and size of Wisky GB. Schachtner is a stud down low, and Eastern doesn’t really have the size to defend him. There is a bit of value in Wisky GB at home here I think. They haven’t really shot the 3ball well this year quite yet, and can get that turned around against a team like Eastern who defends poorly in the half court. They’re currently scoring 8 more ppg than they did last year, but their three-point percentage is down quite a bit, so all in all, Wisky GB will be a team to be reckoned with in the Horizon (my #2).

Selections

3* Western Carolina +4
1* Iowa State +1
1* New Mexico State +6.5

Still looking at a few…

GL