calling all hockey gurus!

[armyvet]

Here is my story. Right when the hockey season started last year one of the guys that taught me good majority of my tricks talked me into this wager at Pinnacle before they shot down all Americans.

Stanley Cup
Odds To Win 2007 Stanley Cup
St. Louis Blues

$10 +10203 which pays $1020.30 if the Blues win the cup. Which is highly unlikely. The logic here is to start hedging the crap out of it on the other side on the money line until the Blues are definately kicked out of any possibilities of winning it.

My question here is can I determine when the first game for the St. Louis Blues is a do or die situation and start hedging? I seen the point system over at yahoo where some are already lockedxc in and other have already been kicked out. If anybody could decypher to me how that point system works it would greatly be appreciated. Here is what yahoo has now. Or if there is better info elsewhere please let me know.

1. x-Nashville 76 103
2. x-Anaheim 75 100
3. * Vancouver 75 97
4. x-Detroit 75 101
5. Minnesota 76 97
6. Dallas 75 96
7. San Jose 76 96
8. Calgary 75 90
9. Colorado 75 85

10. St. Louis 75 74

11. Columbus 75 69
12. Edmonton 76 69
13. Los Angeles 76 66
14. Phoenix 75 63
15. Chicago 75 63


I know it's a crazy bet and hope they get beat in my first couple bets. That's what makes this grand hobby we have exciting if there is a change of pace ever once in awhile to keep your mind sharp!

[Chronicle Sports]

They have no chance of winning or even competing for the Cup. St. Louis will not be in the Playoffs so that bet is dead on the last day of the regular season.


The top 8 teams in points make the Playoffs in each conference(Division winners get the 1,2, and 3 seeds). There are 82 games per team in the regular season. Using St. Louis as an example, they played 75 games(7 remaining) and have 74 points(16 behind the eighth seed and final Playoff spot, Calgary). Each win is worth 2 points, so even if St. Louis would go 7-0 in their final games and Calgary goes 0-7 the most points they could end up with is 88 which would still fall two short of a Playoff spot.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news.

[armyvet]

I figured it would be you Chron to explain the basics! Thanks for clearin the mud out of my eyes. It was only a $10 bet no worries. What you just explained here is worth more than any $10 bet. So how many games late do you think I was here ? 3 or 4? Do you guys think this was a bad bet? I had $1000 to play with a hedge if they kept winning if I would have started at the right point in the number system. Always lookin for different avenues to take down these sportsbooks!

[Chronicle Sports]

I wouldn't of taken a St. Louis future because they are a team that was in rebuilding mode at the beginning of the season and their goaltending was and is iffy at best. But for $10 to win over $1000 I can't say it was a horrible risk to take. They actually played better this year then I expected but are still a few years away from being even playoff contenders.

Not quite sure how you were going to hedge this in the regular season. If they made the Playoffs it can be done by progressively hedging against them.


Maybe seeing the NHL Playoff Format will help:

All series are in the best of 7 format. From round one to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Round 1 has 16 teams in the playoffs(8 East and 8 West). The top eight from each conference. There are no byes and the higher seed gets four home games if the series goes all seven games. The 1 seed plays the 8 seed, 2 plays 7, etc... This is for both conferences East and West.

Round 2 has 8 teams left(4 East and 4 West). The matchups are determined by your initial seeding. So if the 1 seed gets through the first round they get the worse remaining seed in the second.

Round 3 we're now down to the Conference Finals. Two teams are remaining in each conference and the winner moves on to play the winner of the other conference for the Cup.

Round 4 This is for all the marbles. The one team that made it through the Western Conference will play the one that made it through the East for the Stanley Cup.


Just a note on the NHL Playoffs. The saying in baseball that Good Pitching beats Good Hitting in the playoffs carries true in hockey also. Good Goaltending will usually beat Good Scoring. The one problem(or Gold Mine if you catch it) here is that a hot goaltender will not always be the best goaltender. What I mean is Martin Brodeur is by far viewed as the top goaltender in the East but as witnessed last year a relative unknown goalie, like Cam Ward, can get hot and carry a team through a few rounds or even the whole Playoffs. Keep an eye out for hot goaltenders that are not nationally recognized as the best goaltender. Taking their club to win a series can be very profitable if they play for a team that is not expected to advance very far, like Carolina last year. The Islanders, if they get in, with Dipietro are a team to watch.

[armyvet]

Good info Chron! I am a numbers man myself meaning ever since I got into wagering on sports it wasn't about the handicapping but more into the sports arbitrage and turning a true profit no matter what the outcome was. Yeah that wager was a little bit out there not something I normally do but it was worth exercising my mind a little. I do the same thing when I go to the horse track I don't buy a racing form and try to handicap but just look at the odds board and manipuate my wagers according to the odds. It would be good to find some hedging opportunities when the playoffs begin. Maybe you could teach me a few tricks in that department.